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Buhari’s 8-Year Score Card (2015 – 2023) – BudgIT Nigeria

May 29, 2023

The administration of Muhammadu Buhari has come to an end. As the nation welcomes its 5th democratically elected president, we have analyzed the data, facts, and figures that characterized Buhari’s time as President.

GDP witnessed impressive growth, moving from N95.18 in 2015 to N212.75 in 2022. The non-oil sector composite GDP grew from 91% in 2015 to 93.7%, while the oil sector GDP decreased from 8% to 6.21%, respectively.

Inflation in the last 8 years has risen from 9% to 21.87%. Food inflation, in particular, grew from 9.89% in 2015 to 24.34% in 2023.

Exchange Rate has seen a drastic increase in the last 8 years; at the beginning of Buhari’s tenure in 2015, the value of the Naira to Dollar was pegged at N192.64, and as of today, it stands at N461, making an increase of 139%.

 

The variance (or difference) between the CBN rate and the Parallel market widened as it rose from N30.14 in 2015 to N298.72 in 2023. As of today, the parallel market sells at N760 Naira per Dollar.
Buhari met a total public debt that was less than N13tn. However, upon leaving, this debt increased to N46.25trn. It is now nearly 4 times the amount it was in 2015.
Regarding poverty, more Nigerians are poorer today than they have been in years. The concentration of the poor appears to be acute in the urban areas and geographically is higher in the northern parts of the country.
Though precise figures for 2023 are not available, data shows that as of 2020, unemployment rate has tripled, while the underemployment rate has nearly doubled. However, youth unemployment and underemployment appear to have reduce.
Nigeria’s foreign reserves were highest in 2018 and since then have been in relative decline. As of May 2023, they are the lowest they have been in 6 years.
The administration of @MBuhari grew the size of the budget considerably. However, available data shows that a huge portion of his regime’s budget was focused on debt payments. Capital expenditure (compared to recurrent debt & recurrent non-debt) has received the least allocation.
Revenue performance for @MBuhari’s two terms has been mixed. The revenue peaked in 2021 but may be surpassed in 2022 (total revenue figures for the 2022 fiscal year are yet to be published).
The country’s fiscal deficit (difference between its revenues & expenditures) has been increasing steadily over the years. Though the complete data for 2022 is yet to be published, it will likely surpass that of the 2020 fiscal year.
Security has been a sore point of the outgoing administration, with the two terms being punctuated by numerous serious security breaches. The map below shows some of the incidents & their locations. Compared to previous govts, @MBuhari’s govt has spent the highest on security.
Source – BudgIT Nigeria

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