As the race for the White House enters its final stretch, a new poll released on Thursday reveals a fierce competition between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump across seven critical battleground states. The survey, conducted by Emerson College Polling in collaboration with The Hill, underscores the high stakes and intense polarization characterizing the 2024 presidential election.
According to the poll, Harris has a narrow lead over Trump in three pivotal states: Georgia, Michigan, and Nevada. In Georgia, Harris edges out Trump by a slim margin of 49 percent to 48 percent. The gap widens slightly in Michigan, where Harris leads with 50 percent to Trump’s 47 percent. In Nevada, Harris also holds a fragile lead at 49 percent to 48 percent.
However, Trump is not far behind. The former president is ahead in Arizona, North Carolina, and Wisconsin. Trump leads Harris in Arizona by a margin of 50 percent to 47 percent, while in North Carolina, he has a one-point edge at 49 percent to Harris’s 48 percent. In Wisconsin, Trump also holds a narrow lead with 49 percent compared to Harris’s 48 percent.
Pennsylvania remains a battleground within a battleground, with both candidates tied at 48 percent. Given the margins of error in the polling data, the race remains a virtual dead heat in all seven states, highlighting the unpredictable nature of the 2024 election.
“The race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump continues to be tight, within each state’s margin of error,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, noted in a statement.
Demographic Divides and Shifting Dynamics
The poll also highlights notable demographic divides. Harris is outperforming Trump among independent voters in six of the seven states, with Nevada being the sole exception where Trump leads among independents. This demographic, often a crucial factor in determining election outcomes, appears to lean slightly towards Harris, offering a potential advantage in these tight races.
Gender differences are also stark, mirroring trends observed in the 2020 election. Harris leads among female voters in six states, while Trump performs better with women in Arizona, where he holds a narrow two-point advantage. On the other hand, Trump dominates among male voters across all seven states. Harris has a notable edge with younger voters under 30, a group that could play a decisive role in determining the final outcome.
“There is also a stark gender divide, similar to that of 2020,” Kimball remarked. “In six of the seven swing states, Harris leads Trump among women, however, in Arizona, Trump has a two-point edge on Harris among women voters, a group that broke for Biden by about three points in 2020 according to exit polling.”
Harris’s Momentum Post-Convention
The polling data reflects a significant shift in the Democratic Party’s fortunes following President Biden’s decision to withdraw from the race, paving the way for Harris’s nomination. Democrats had previously expressed concerns about their viability in states like Michigan with Biden at the top of the ticket. However, Harris’s candidacy appears to have revitalized the party’s prospects, making these states more competitive.
Harris’s recent momentum, particularly after the Democratic National Convention in Chicago, has been closely watched by political observers. The Emerson College Polling/*The Hill* survey suggests that while Harris may have benefited from the post-convention boost, the race remains exceedingly close, with the potential for further shifts as election day approaches.
Nationally, Harris holds a slight lead over Trump, with an aggregate of surveys compiled by Decision Desk HQ showing her leading Trump by a margin of 50 percent to 45 percent.
Down-Ballot Implications
The survey also indicates that the tight presidential race is influencing down-ballot contests, particularly in states with competitive Senate races. In Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, Democratic Senate candidates are currently leading their Republican opponents.
– In Arizona, Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) leads Republican Kari Lake by 49 percent to 42 percent.
– In Michigan, Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D) holds a six-point lead over Republican Mike Rogers, 47 percent to 41 percent.
– In Nevada, incumbent Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) is ahead of GOP challenger Sam Brown, 50 percent to 40 percent.
– In Pennsylvania, Sen. Bob Casey (D) leads David McCormick by 48 percent to 44 percent.
– In Wisconsin, Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) edges out Eric Hovde with a 49 percent to 48 percent lead.
The data also shows Democrat Josh Stein leading GOP Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson in the North Carolina gubernatorial race, 47 percent to 41 percent.
Poll Methodology
The Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey was conducted between August 26 and August 28. In Arizona, 720 likely voters were surveyed with a margin of error of 3.6 percentage points. In Michigan and Georgia, 800 likely voters were polled in each state, with a margin of error of 3.4 percentage points for each. In Pennsylvania, 950 likely voters were surveyed with a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points. In Nevada, 1,168 likely voters were polled with a margin of error of 2.8 percentage points. In North Carolina, 775 likely voters were surveyed with a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points, and in Wisconsin, 850 likely voters were polled with a margin of error of 3.3 percentage points.
As the 2024 election approaches, the Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey underscores the razor-thin margins in the key battleground states, making it clear that the race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump remains too close to call. With the candidates neck-and-neck, and demographic divides further complicating the landscape, both campaigns are gearing up for a fiercely contested final push to sway undecided voters in these crucial states.
Credit: The Hill
