INDIANAPOLIS, INDIANA – APRIL 02: A general view of the exterior of Lucas Oil Stadium before the Men’s Final Four on April 02, 2026 in Indianapolis, Indiana. (Photo by Luke Hales/Getty Images) | Getty Images
1, 1, 3, 2. While a few Final Fours have been chalkier than that, March Madness increasingly relies more on wild finishes than improbable Final Four (or even Sweet 16) participants to justify its name. Iowa and UConn delivered wild finishes to deny one seeds Duke and Florida a trip to Indianapolis. UConn stole Duke’s spot, and Iowa got to the threshold before losing to Illinois.
Illinois, UConn, Arizona, and Michigan reaching this point promises close, compelling games in the semifinals. The lines on both these games have hovered around 1.5 points all week, with Illinois and Michigan the slightest of favorites. Odds for National Champion reflect a conventional wisdom that the winner of the Arizona-Michigan game likely wins it all. As of Friday, Michigan lead that board at +145, Arizona at +185, Illinois at +480, and UConn at +600.
For UNC fans, these matchups hold additional intrigue beyond just the prospects of great basketball. Tommy Lloyd graciously but firmly pulled himself out of the running for the UNC job, accepting reportedly less money to stay at Arizona. Dusty May remains in conversation around UNC’s open head coaching position. While Lloyd has received far more attention on that front, May has not removed his name from consideration, and reporting continues to suggest that he’s under consideration. Would a Michigan loss improve UNC’s chances of landing May? Is landing May even feasible at this point? That matchup pits what might have been against what might be.
Former Tar Heel Elliot Cadeau leads the Michigan Wolverines. He’s already declared his intention to return for his senior season in Ann Arbor, confirmation that for undersized talents like Cadeau, college eligibility represents their best earning opportunity. For everyone complaining about athletes “chasing the bag,” the economic value of an athletic skill set fades fast. Athletes who once hurried to the NBA or another professional pay check now stay in the college game, and all things considered, that’s a good thing for both the game and fans.
On the other hand, Michigan’s top four scorers are all transfers, while Arizona relies heavily on three true freshmen along with two third year program vets. Michigan’s much more the new model of roster construction, while Arizona’s approach feels a bit more familiar. Which one are you rooting for?
In the other match-up, UNC fans can renew their distaste for Dan Hurley now that his Huskies have sent the Blue Devils home. Duke homer Seth Davis noted that, “Illinois returns to the Final Four for the first time since 2005, when they won it all…” Stupid is as stupid does, to quote a famous philosopher.
Join us in the comments below with your thoughts and observations.
