PITTSBURGH, PA – APRIL 04: Egor Chinakhov #59 of the Pittsburgh Penguins in action during the game against the Florida Panthers at PPG PAINTS Arena on April 4, 2026 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Joe Sargent/NHLI via Getty Images) | NHLI via Getty Images

Kyle Dubas has a busy offseason ahead for the Pittsburgh Penguins, and when it comes to potential returning players Egor Chinakhov is probably going to be near the top of the list. Now that Evgeni Malkin is officially re-signed, Chinakhov probably jumps to the top of the list.

Chinakhov was a mid-season addition from the Columbus Blue Jackets, arriving in Pittsburgh with enormous talent but inconsistent results. Things simply did not work out for him in Columbus, and the Penguins were there to roll the dice on him, sending two draft picks and Danton Heinen the other way.

It turned out to be one of the best, most impactful moves that Dubas made in what was already a fantastic year for him.

Immediately upon his arrival in Pittsburgh, Chinakhov started to play like the top-line winger the Blue Jackets had hoped he would be.

He scored 18 goals with 18 assists (36 total points) in 43 games with the Penguins, bringing his full-season total to 21 goals, 21 assists and 42 total points across both teams.

It was his performance with the Penguins that opened the most eyes and put him on the map.

While he struggled to generate offense in the playoffs, his play in the second half of the regular season at least made him a must-keep player for the upcoming season. Especially given how good he showed himself to be away from the puck and as a playmaker. He was not just a one-trick pony ripping wrist shots and feasting on a high shooting percentage. He made the people around him better and made plays all over the ice.

Now the Penguins have to figure out a new contract for him given that he is set to be a restricted free agent. The Penguins have more salary cap space than any other team in the NHL this offseason, so money is not going to be an issue. It is just a matter of how much money it is going to take and what that contract is eventually going to look like.

I have some ideas.

I went back over the past 10 years and tried to pick out some comparable players and situations to get a sense of what those deals have looked like.

I was not only trying to find players at a similar age and production level to what Chinakhov has done, but also players that were facing a similar contract situation. What I mean by that is, players that are restricted free agents, but have already signed at least one bridge deal as an RFA. In other words: Not players coming off an entry-level contract.

Here are some of the players that I found:

PlayerGames Played At SigningCareer Goals At SigningGoals/GameCareer Points At SigningPoints/GameRFA Year GoalsRFA Year PointsContractPercentage Of Salary CapJared McCann42793.218205.48027505 years $25 million ($5.0)6.06Casey Mittelstadt35766.185196.54918573 years $17.25 million ($5.75)6.53Joel Eriksson Ek26643.16296.36119308 years $42 million ($5.25)6.44Artturi Lehkonen41280.194158.38319385 years $22.5 million ($4.5)5.45Pavel Buchnevich30179.262195.64820484 years $28 million ($5.8)7.12Egor Chinakhov24755.223113.4572142??

In terms of production and age, I am not sure these numbers are that far off. Maybe you want to argue that Chinakhov’s upside is a little higher than some of these guys, but how much is that worth in a contract negotiation? Do the Penguins want to gamble and go longer-term? Does Chinakhov want to gamble on himself and take a shorter-term deal in the hopes he can prove his second half wasn’t a fluke and try to cash in on the open market in a year or two?

But in terms of dollars and cap space, these guys signed contracts that were all between 5.4 and 7.1 percent of the salary cap.

In terms of this year’s cap, you are looking at a range of $5.6 million on the low end and $7.4 million on the high end.

Given that Chinakhov is coming off a bridge contract that paid him $2.1 million, and given the season he had, and given the rise in the salary cap, none of that seems totally unreasonable.

Three years, $20 million?

Four years $26-$28 million?

Does something like that interest you?

In some ways it is a tough situation. You want to keep him. You want to believe in what you saw in the second half, and there is good reason to do so. But there is still a mystery on what his upside and consistent level of production is going to be.

Either way somebody here is going to be taking a gamble. Either the Penguins on signing a player that is still a bit of an unknown, or Chinakhov betting (or not betting) on himself.