We are now five positions into the Astros offensive outlook on the season. We are reviewing five underlying statistics that impact what players produce. Over a long enough timeline, the underlying numbers will match the conventional ones. Occasionally, we see times where that does not happen. That is the case for the 2025 Astros. Obviously, we saw that the club jettisoned Luis Urias and Mauricio Dubon in favor of Nick “The Stick” Allen. However, it cannot be assumed that Allen will make the final roster.
Looking at the underlying numbers are dreadfully important because they help predict ascension or descension. For most of our guys we have seen that the numbers should improve based on the underlying numbers, but shortstop is likely position where we see a return to the pack. However, they do provide a sneak peak into the kinds of things the hitting coaches will focus on with each individual hitter. The league norms for the numbers we will use are below, but more important are the three year trends we see from the player.
Chase rate: This is the percentage of balls a player swings at outside of the zone. The league average normally lives around 30 percent, but we will be looking at three year intervals and we should notice trends more than where a player is in relationship to the league average.Hard hit percentage: This is simply the percentage of balls that a player hits hard. Hard hit balls become hits and extra base hits more often than softer contact. Typically 35 percent is around the league average in this category.BABIP: This is batting average on balls in play. Home runs are obviously excluded since they are not in play. The league average tends to hover around .300 but it will largely depend on hard hit percentages and breakdowns between groundballs, flyballs, and line drives.Contact percentage: This is the percentage of swings that turn into contact. Typically 75 percent is around league average.HR/FB percentage: This is the percentage of flyballs that result in home runs. Ten percent is typically around the league average.
ChaseHardhitBABIPContactHR/FB202333.935.5.32373.88.5202437.038.8.30177.19.6202535.442.9.34574.212.8Aggregate35.440.9.32375.010.3
If you did not look at the conventional numbers, you would think that Jeremy Pena was a league average offensive player. He chases more than average, but makes slightly harder contact than average. Every other number is more or less league average. The good news is that he had gains in hard hit rate last season and that translated into more power as well. The bad news is that he has not been able to mute the chase rate after a promising reduction from 2022 to 2023.
What does this all mean in plain English? Jeremy Pena is a serious regression candidate. If he is more or less league average in these numbers then he should be more or less league average across the board. That might look like a .260/.310/.400 type of stat line. Add some speed to that and certainly better than average defense and he is still an above average regular shortstop. However, he isn’t likely to be the borderline MVP candidate he was last season until his injury.
Obviously, that complicates his case for a lengthy extension. Pena has been fairly durable, so he produces between three and five wins every season. Conservatively, that should be worth between 25 and 30 million in terms of AAV. Usually you would want your team to extend guys sooner rather than later, but perhaps a down 2026 makes him slightly more affordable.
ChaseHardhitBABIPContactHR/FB202329.126.6.25382.94.9202426.517.5.21181.94.8202523.621.6.29880.60.0Aggregate26.421.9.25481.83.2
Again, if we look at just these numbers then we might not think things are so bad. After all, he is above average in two of the four skills (plate discipline and contact). He is just dangerously below average in making hard contact and power. In fact, for a player with over 150 plate appearances in each of the past three seasons, there might not be a single player with worse hard hit contact rates in all of baseball. Cesar Salazar was worse, but those were in three relatively short cups of coffee.
We understand a lot more about BABIP then we used to. The assumption used to be that every player would eventually find level ground and that level ground would be .300. Since then we have learned that the kind of contact you generate matters. A player with softer contact like Allen would only succeed if they also had Vince Coleman’s speed. Allen doesn’t.
So, as harsh as it is to say, his 2025 season might have been a positive anomaly in some cases. The difficult part is that if Allen were an everyday player he would probably produce two wins defensively regardless of the position and as many as three at short. He also would be a negative win player offensively. The trick will be squeezing out every ounce of defensive value while not costing the team too much in terms of offensive value. How do you feel about these players? Do you agree that Pena is likely to regress?
